Before the floods: How an early warning is saving lives in Bangladesh

The photograph shows a young woman navigating through a flood-affected area in Bangladesh using a raft made from banana tree trunks.

A CARE study found that 93 percent of people who received an early flood forecast took proactive measures to mitigate potential impacts. All photos: Asafuzzaman/CARE

UPDATE: Cyclone Remal

As we were preparing this story for publication, the severe cyclonic storm Remal started making landfall between West Bengal's Sagar Island, India and Khepupara, Bangladesh. It is the first cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in the pre-monsoon season this year.

Around 11 million people are exposed to the cyclone, and more than 2 million people living in semi-pucca houses are highly vulnerable in the south-east districts are at risk of displacement. The associated heavy rainfall can lead to flashfloods and landslides in the south-west districts of the country as well.

The Government of Bangladesh (GoB) with support of Cyclone Preparedness Program (CPP) members and volunteers of different non-government organizations have evacuated over 800,000 people to shelters.

CARE has started responding to cyclone Remal. Need Assessment Working Group (NAWG) co-led by CARE has been monitoring the situation from the very beginning. Through Readiness and Early Action (EA) interventions - CARE disseminated early warning messages, assist at risk communities to evacuate, provided dry foods, drinking water, hygiene kits, midwifery support and gender-based violence awareness at cyclone shelters covering more than 5,000 individuals in Patuakhali and Bagerhat districts in the south-west, while teams are also coordinating with Government initiatives in Cox’s Bazaar and the Hill Tracts in south-east. CARE staff are ready to conduct rapid need assessment within 72 hours after the cyclone landfall, as well as further response and early recovery initiatives.

But for some communities in northern Bangladesh, the story of the annual disaster is changing.

By using an early flood-warning system, people from three northern districts – Kurigram, Gaibandha, and Jamalpur – have managed to mitigate their losses.

The idea is simple.

Ahead of the 2020 floods, local people received flood-related early warning messages and to-do advisories. Local volunteers and community members helped spread the messages, using various innovative approaches — from pre-recorded mobile voice messages to local broadcasts from mosques and other religious centers to loudspeakers mounted on boats and bicycles. These messages about the flood’s timing, duration, and to-be-affected areas helped save lives and properties.

“Since 2019, I’ve been receiving mobile voice messages from SUFAL, which have consistently kept my family and friends informed about approaching floods,” says Parveen, a local community group member.

What is SUFAL?

SUFAL, an initiative that stands for “Scaling-Up Forecast-based Action and Learning,” was launched in 2019.

This community-based initiative SUFAL now works with 100,000 people across four northern districts to send these early messages and announcements to help local residents better prepare and take timely actions. CARE leads SUFAL with two other partners: Concern Worldwide and Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System. SUFAL, a consortium, is funded by the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO).

People at the center and in action

Since SUFAL proactively disseminates early warnings and actionable recommendations, people are able to safeguard their lives and possessions before an approaching flood, which is essential because between 1971 and 2014, 78 floods claimed over 41,783 lives and inflicted significant economic losses.

“We receive guidance on seeking secure shelter, preserving dry food and fuel, stocking up on medicine, vaccinating cattle, protecting against snake bites by keeping carbolic acid at home, and monitor paddy fields – all before the flood arrives,” Parveen says.

In addition to mobile voice messages, SUFAL resorted to other traditional means of communications for better coverage. “We made announcements with loudspeakers, so that people from the inundated places could seek refuge in elevated locations,” CARE Bangladesh’s Fazlul says. “We offered a boat to evacuate.”

In SUFAL working areas, people play a pivotal role in disseminating information. Those who receive flood alerts via mobile phones proactively share the updates with their neighbors, especially those without access to a phone.

“This time [2020], one week ahead of the floods, I received voice messages delivered at least thrice in the evening, ” Parveen says. “Upon receiving advance flood alerts, some of my neighbors chose to harvest jute from their fields before the floods.”

“After receiving forecasts, we took early actions like protecting our seedlings, arranging fodder and shelter for livestock,” says Ranju, a local resident. “We harvested our vegetables just before the flood,” adds Mukta, another resident.

How people are benefiting

A SUFAL evaluation found that 93 percent of people who received early flood forecasts took proactive actions to mitigate potential damage and losses. During the 2020 floods, each household was able to save over $200 and reduce the post-flood loan burden by up to 18 percent.

“SUFAL’s impact transcends mere statistics, resonating through the narratives of individuals such as Parveen, Mukta, Ranju and Siddik, underscoring the efficacy of community-driven approaches in disaster response and resilience,” says CARE’s Kaiser Rejvi, CARE Director in Bangladesh for Humanitarian & Climate Action Program.

“With the ability to predict floods through forecasts, we hope our sufferings will hopefully alleviate,” says Siddik, a community member, who earlier faced repeated inundation and displacement during floods.

Before the floods: How an early warning is saving lives in Bangladesh